USA: Why 2026 Forecasts Are All Over the Map | When Experience and Results Matter

US outlooks varied sharply: one economist saw home prices ↑~4% this year, while a Real Estate portal expected just ~1% growth nationwide.
That gap mattered because consumer inflation ran near ~4% in Mid-Q2; stronger price gains would mostly preserve value, while weaker gains reduced purchasing power.
Why gains slowed: squeezed consumers, improving inventory, more new construction, and fewer investors as borrowing costs stayed high and rents were expected ↓~1%.
The biggest brake was mortgage costs: the 30-yr fixed averaged mid-6% in Early-Q3, while several expert forecasts kept 2026 rates in low-to-mid-6%.
For first-time buyers, the choice stayed personal: wait for lower rates and possible price pressure later, or buy now and refinance when rates fall.